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[行业报告] Vietnam Grain and Feed Annual-201904 进入全文

USDA

In marketing year (MY) 2019/2020, Post forecasts wheat imports at 4.5 million metric tons (MMT), and estimates MY18/19 at 4.0 MMT. Post forecasts imports of corn at 10.0 MMT in MY19/20 and estimates MY18/19 imports at 10.2 MMT, a drop of 800,000 MT from the official USDA estimate, due to African Swine Fever (ASF). For rice, Post forecasts MY19/20 export volume to rebound to 6.5 MMT of milled rice, due to increased production. Post revises the MY18/19 export volume down from 7.0 MMT to 6.0 MMT due to decreased harvested area and production.

[行业报告] Brazil Grain and Feed Annual-201904 进入全文

USDA`

MY 18/19 corn production is forecast at 95 MMT, 18 percent higher than MY 17/18, on expanded area and excellent conditions for the safrinha crop. MY 19/20 production is forecast to grow to 97.5 MMT. MY 19/20 rice production is forecast to increase to 7.82 MMT on a return to trend yields, despite a static forecast for area. MY 19/20 wheat production is expected to grow to 6 MMT, on expanded crop area, incentivized by strong domestic wheat prices. At the same time, the eventual implementation of a duty-free wheat TRQ should help boost U.S. wheat exports to Brazil.

[行业报告] Argentina Oilseeds and Products Annual-201904 进入全文

USDA

Post forecasts 2019/20 soybean production to fall by 3 percent to 53 million tons due to decreased area. Sunflower seed production is expected to decline by 7 percent to 3.6 million tons based on flat area while peanut production is expected to decline by 2 percent to 1.13 million tons due to a return to average yields. Producer uncertainty is high due to shifting economic conditions and an upcoming presidential election in October 2019. This has the potential to alter the flow of farmer sells and plantings decisions for the 2019/20 season.

[行业报告] Brazil Oilseeds and Products Annual-201904 进入全文

USDA

Post forecasts that Brazil will maintain its position as an oilseed production powerhouse in the 2019/20 marketing year. Soybean planted area is forecast to rise only modestly, but with yields recovering from the current drought, production should top records once again with 124 million metric tons (mmt) in the hopper. Cottonseed and peanut planted areas and production volumes are also forecast to continue expanding. Post forecasts soybean exports to recover to 75 mmt next season, but fall short of the banner 2017/18 season. Post estimates that adverse weather will significantly undercut soybean yields, with harvest expected under 114 mmt, well below the initial expectations. In addition to lower yields, Brazilian producers are also expected to face rising costs of doing business.

[行业报告] Oilseeds world markets and trade-201904 进入全文

USDA

Canada’s rapeseed export forecast for 2018/19 was reduced 1 million tons this month in response to a slowing pace of trade and the recent trade dispute with China. Exports are now forecast to reach 10.6 million tons, down slightly from the previous year. However, the export pace will need to accelerate relative to last year to reach the current forecast as exports for the 12-months ending in January 2019 have fallen to below 10 million tons. To achieve this, Canada may need a quick resolution to the current trade dispute that has cut off access to the China market for the two largest exporters, Richardson International and Viterra, in response to China’s contention that shipments have failed to meet quality standards regarding prohibited pests.

[行业报告] Saudi Arabia: Grain and Feed Annual 进入全文

USDA

Saudi Arabia partially rescinded a virtual ban on domestic wheat production and is projected to produce 500,000 MT in MY 2019/20. The Saudi government’s decisions to reduce irrigation are driving this dramatic increase from 10,000 MT in MY 2018/19. Wheat imports are projected to fall by 17 percent to 2.86 MMT in MY 2018/19. Due to winter rains that have reduced demand, we estimate MY2019/20 imports of barley at 6.5 million MT, 1.4 million MT lower than prior year level. Because of increased demand by animal feed producers, we estimate MY2018/19 corn imports at 4.4 million MT, up about 11 percent over MY2017/18 levels. MY 2018/19 Saudi rice imports are estimated at 1.35 million MT, up by nearly 4 percent from last year.

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