Global orange production for 2019/20 is forecast to fall 5.8 million metric tons (tons) from the previous year to 47.5 million as unfavorable weather leads to smaller crops in Brazil, Egypt, the European Union, and Morocco. Consequently, consumption, fruit for processing, and fresh exports are also forecast lower.
Drylands are a vital but often overlooked resource. Those that live in drylands depend on forests and other wooded lands, and grasslands for their livelihoods and to meet basic needs. Trees and forests in drylands also provide habitats for biodiversity, protect against erosion and desertification, and help increase the resilience of landscapes and communities in the face of global change. However, these ecosystems are vulnerable to water shortage, drought, desertification, land-use change and degradation, and climate change impacts, with dangerous ramifications for the food security, livelihood and well-being of their populations. Urgent action is needed to improve the management and restoration of drylands to achieve land degradation neutrality. The report - the first of its kind –provides a baseline for future monitoring and will support countries in their efforts to identify appropriate investments for the restoration and sustainable management of drylands.
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Brazil's 2019/20 soybean production is estimated at a record 123 million metric tons (mmt), unchanged from last month and up 6 million tons or 5 percent from last year. Area is estimated at a record 36.9 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1 million hectares or 3 percent from last year. Yield is estimated at 3.33 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month, but up 2 percent from last year and up 4 percent from the 5-year average. If weather cooperates this growing season, Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s leading soybean producer.Brazil's soybean planting season is from September 16 through December 31 for most states. Most farmers tend to sow immediately after the onset of rains and after the vazio sanitário, which ends on September 16. The vazio sanitário is the mandatory sanitary period where no soybeans or soybean debris can be in the fields. Farmers who irrigate can sow soybeans earlier as long as emergence is after September 16, while other farmers must wait for the onset of rains. Rains typically arrive in mid-September for the largest soybean producing state, Mato Grosso (~33 mmt), and for second largest state producer, Paraná (~19 mmt). The latest states to plant soybeans include: Rio Grande do Sul (~18 mmt) and northeastern states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia, or collectively known as the Matopiba region (~14 mmt).
Vegetable oil prices have risen appreciably over the last 3 months, adding nearly $100 or more per ton to prices depending on the oil. The magnitude of price gains has been the greatest for the lower-priced oils, particularly palm oil, resulting in a narowing of the price spread among the four major oils. The spread between palm and rapeseed oil fell 50 percent from nearly $360/ton to $180/ton while the spread between palm and soybean oil declined roughly 75 percent from nearly $160/ton to near $40/ton. Palm oil has been the principle driver in the vegetable oil market as strong demand growth has been met with limited growth in supplies. Global consumption of palm oil grew an estimated 6 million tons in 2019, roughly double the growth in global production, leading to a draw-down in stocks. This strong demand is in part a reaction to the low palm oil prices seen earlier in the year as well as rising demand for biodiesel, particularly in producing countries. In China, import demand for all oils has accelerated as a reduction in oilseed crush, a function of lower demand for protein meals in response to African Swine Fever, has curbed local supplies.
Thai rice exports are forecast to tumble further in 2020, dropping to the lowest level in 7 years. Exports for 2020 are forecast down by a third compared to 2 years ago as exportable supplies fall and prices remain high. The precipitous decline in Thai exports began in calendar year 2019, in part due to tepid demand from key markets. China was Thailand's second-largest market, but its imports have fallen sharply over the past year. Likewise, Indonesia's imports plummeted over the past year with more abundant domestic supplies, reducing the need for imports from Thailand or elsewhere.