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[学术文献] Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application 进入全文

Weather and Climate Extremes

Climate anomalies pose risks to agriculture and food security. To assess the impact, this paper models the complex dependences of climate extreme indices and the crop-related variables: yield, production, and price of a crop. Using a comprehensive copula-based analysis, the conditional distributions of the crop-related variables given extremes of air temperature and precipitation are estimated. We used potatoes in the Netherlands as a case study. Weather data were obtained from 33 weather stations and ECMWF ERA-interim archive during the period 1980–2017. A joint behavior analysis predicted the yield, the production and the price with the relative mean absolute error equal to 5.4%, 3.6%, and 27.9%, respectively. The study showed that copulas adequately describe the multivariate dependences. Those in turn are able to quantify the impact of climate extremes, including their uncertainties.

[学术文献] Unraveling the impacts of droughts and agricultural intensification on the Altiplano water resources 进入全文

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

During the last decades, agriculture has drastically increased over the South American Andean Plateau (Altiplano), resulting in extensive changes in land cover from native vegetation to essentially Quinoa crop. Along with climatic variability, these land use changes appear as a catalyst in worsening the already existing drought events and water scarcity processes. Hence, understanding their relative contributions to the regional desertification process is crucial for sustainable water-use adaptation, but also is quite ambiguous because of water resource data scarcity over the Altiplano. Therefore, in the present study, an attempt to measure the impact of severe droughts and agricultural intensification on the water resources has been made using remote sensing datasets. The first step was dedicated to the validation of newly released CHIRPS v.2 precipitation and GLEAM v.3 potential evapotranspiration products by comparing their estimates with the results obtained from gauges data. Then, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe past hydro-meteorological drought events in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity and their impacts on the regional water resources. Finally, the dynamic trends in the spatial extent of the Quinoa crop and the meteorological conditions derived from CHIRPS v.2 and GLEAM v.3 were compared with the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Total Water Storage (TWS) derived from AVHRR and GRACE data respectively, to observe the respective influence of agriculture and climate variability on the regional hydrological system. A significant increase in Quinoa crop extent is observed from 2001 which corresponds to a significant decrease in regional VCI and TWS. Based on this trend, agriculture appears as a contributing factor in the water scarcity process over the Altiplano. The outcomes of this study will contribute to local decision making for a better water management and hydro-meteorological monitoring system.

[前沿资讯] 提高地面灌溉技术 有效节约水资源 进入全文

新华网

“农业是我国用水大户,如果要缓解农业用水的短缺,从根本上解决我国水资源缺乏问题,提高地面灌溉技术水平将是一个重要的措施。”中国水利水电科学院水利研究所所长李益农日前在接受新华网采访时说。李益农介绍,灌溉方法主要包括地面灌溉、喷灌、滴灌等。相对喷灌、滴灌等现代高效节水灌溉方法,地面灌溉是一个传统、常见的灌溉方法,而且是目前我国应用面积最广的灌溉技术。与喷灌、滴灌技术相比,地面灌溉技术的灌水效率较低,水资源浪费现象也较为严重,因而从技术上不断提高地面灌溉的灌水效果,能有效节约水资源。

[前沿资讯] 甘肃推进农业绿色发展:化肥减量用 农药零增长 进入全文

中国甘肃网

“为什么越来越多的人说现在的食品没有原来的味道了?”11月2日,第十二届甘肃农业博览会在兰州开幕,在博览会分活动“甘肃灌区节水减肥增效示范区”建设专家论坛上,南京农业大学学术委员会主任沈其荣教授的发问引起现场共鸣,而关于减肥、减药使用有机肥提高农产品品质的讨论,成为破解措施之一。11月2日,“甘肃灌区节水减肥增效示范区”建设专家论坛在兰州举办,甘肃省农业农村厅党组成员、副厅长梁仲科出席。他表示,土肥水工作关系到粮食安全和农产品有效供给,关系到农业绿色发展和生态文明建设,关系到农业节本增效和产业扶贫。甘肃积极推进农田节水技术以及测土配方施肥和农药零增长行动,推进化肥、农药减量使用。

[前沿资讯] 长江经济带高质量绿色发展智库联盟成立 进入全文

金融时报-中国金融新闻网

中国宏观经济研究院和国家开发银行研究院近日联合22家研究机构,在京举办长江经济带高质量绿色发展智库联盟成立仪式暨“十四五”时期长江经济带高质量绿色发展研讨会。国家发展和改革委员会副主任罗文在会上表示,推动长江经济带发展是党中央做出的重大决策,是习近平总书记亲自谋划、亲自推动、关系国家发展全局的重大战略。国家高端智库发挥引领作用,牵头成立长江经济带高质量绿色发展智库联盟,搭建集科研与金融为一体的共享平台,对推动长江经济带高质量绿色发展具有重要现实意义。国家开发银行副行长周清玉在会上表示,发挥特色新型智库优势,成立智库联盟,是贯彻落实习近平总书记关于推动长江经济带发展系列重要讲话精神和党中央决策部署的具体行动,通过组织机构的合作机制创新和多层次务实合作,促进各方加强沟通协作,凝聚智慧力量,推动重大课题研究攻关,为推动长江经济带高质量绿色发展提供有效智力支撑。

[学术文献] An assessment of tropical cyclones rainfall erosivity for Taiwan 进入全文

Nature/Scientific Reports

Rainfall erosivity (or water erosion) has severe implications on agriculture, water, and land use management. Though, there were Rainfall erosivity studies on regional and global scale, tropical cyclones’ Rainfall erosivity is poorly assessed and have not been documented for one of the most cyclones affecting regions of the world like Taiwan. Here, using 15-years of raindrop size distributions (RSD) and 60-years of hourly rain gauges data, we estimated cyclones (also called typhoons) rainfall erosivity over Taiwan, and establish that typhoons’ mean rainfall erosivity is higher than the global mean rainfall erosivity. Moreover, regional variability of typhoons rainfall erosivity showed an increasing pattern from north to south (Taipei to Pingtung), with relatively higher values over eastern and southern parts of Taiwan. The annual mean erosivity of typhoons rainfall showed raising trends over eastern and southern Taiwan during 1958–2017. Our results provide an insight in assessing the land use and agricultural management for Taiwan.

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