An improved method for estimating the probability of extreme events was developed at VTT
- Researchers at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland have developed a new and more accurate method for estimating the probability of extreme events, such as storms, floods and earthquakes. The new method will be used in updating building codes and land-use regulations, and is applicable also in developing artificial intelligence, as well as in economics and medical data analysis. Extreme events, such as storms, floods and earthquakes have always been disastrous to civilizations. Communities prepare for them by rigid constructions, flood banks, drainage channels and avoiding building at hazardous locations. For all such preparations, being able to estimate the probability of hazardous extremes is crucial. The estimation is based on the statistics of previously observed extremes, studied by so-called extreme value analysis. Many extreme value analysis methods exist and it has not been clear which of them should be preferred.