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Tajikistan Economic Update, Fall 2015 : A Moderate Slowdown in Economic Growth Coupled with a Sharp Decline in Household Purchasing Power
英文名称:
作者:
World Bank Group
工作单位:
类型:
世界银行报告
来源地址:
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23334
关键词:
LIVING STANDARDS DEBT SOURCE TARIFFS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES MONETARY POLICY DEFICIT DEPOSIT BASIS POINTS NPL ECONOMIC GROWTH EQUIPMENT ACCOUNTING DEPOSITS BROAD MONEY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT STOCK INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PERVERSE INCENTIVES MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT INTEREST POST-CRISIS PERIOD PUBLIC INVESTMENTS EXPECTATIONS INTEREST RATE REMITTANCE PRIVATE CREDIT EXCHANGE BANKING SYSTEM BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS CONSUMER GOODS RESERVE REQUIREMENTS LIQUIDITY LABOR FORCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC MARKET REPAYMENTS DEBT- SERVICE REVENUES CAPITAL ADEQUACY INCENTIVES LOAN ADMINISTRATIVE CONTROLS TAX REAL WAGES RESERVE CREDITORS INFLATION PENSION CREDITOR INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES SAFETY NETS ENABLING ENVIRONMENT BUDGET CENTRAL BANK MATURITY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LABOR MARKET OIL PRICES MATURITY MISMATCHES OIL CURRENCY LOAN RATE POPULATION GROWTH INCOME GROWTH CAPITAL FORMATION INCOME INEQUALITY CONVERSIONS EXCHANGE RATES TRADING LABOR PRODUCTIVITY INTEREST RATES CREDIT RISKS MARKETS DEBT PRIVATE INVESTMENT HOUSEHOLD INCOME RETURN INFLATION RATE FORESTRY LENDERS FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE LOANS DIRECT INVESTMENT RESERVES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT METALS FINANCIAL SYSTEM COMMODITY PRICE RETURN ON ASSETS FINANCE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOOD PRODUCTION PUBLIC INVESTMENT TAXES BANKING SECTOR FISCAL DEFICIT EXPENDITURE RESOURCES DEBT LEVELS UNEMPLOYMENT EQUITY TRANSACTION MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT INVESTORS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH CONSUMPTION HUMAN CAPITAL WAGES CLIMATE CHANGE VALUES BUDGET SURPLUS FINANCIAL CRISIS TURNOVER CREDIT ACCESS PENSIONS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CREDIT FIXED INVESTMENT PURCHASING POWER DEMAND CPI PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS NATIONAL INCOME FARMING HOUSEHOLDS INVESTMENT PROJECTS CONTRACT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE EXPENDITURES ASSET QUALITY CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT MARKET ENVIRONMENT PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS PUBLIC DEBT FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE INFLATION RATES CURRENCIES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRADE LAND GOODS SECURITY NONPERFORMING LOAN NATIONAL BANK INVESTMENT HUMAN RESOURCES SHARE INVESTMENT CLIMATE POVERTY REVENUE EXTERNAL DEBT INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT LENDING CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT CULTURE EXCHANGE RATE FISCAL DISCIPLINE REMITTANCES CAPITAL INVESTMENT LABOR MARKETS LIABILITIES COMMODITY PRICES ARREARS CREDIT INSTITUTIONS PRICES DEVELOPMENT BANK SWAP NONPERFORMING LOANS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Report Rapport Informe
年份:
2015
发布时间:
学科分类:
出版地:
Washington,USA
总页数:
语种:
English
信息来源:
摘要:
Tajikistan's economy exceeded expectations during the first six months of 2015 despite a challenging external environment. According to official data, GDP growth slowed only moderately from 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 to 6.4 percent year on year (y/y) in the first half of 2015, even as remittances from Russia fell, global demand weakened, and prices for the country's key export commodities such as aluminum and cotton dropped significantly. Domestic factors continued to drive growth, and both the construction and industrial sectors expanded as the economy's focus shifted from consumption to investment. The state budget surplus reached 1 percent of GDP, and the external public debt to GDP ratio dropped to below 20 percent. The sharp decline in remittances is limiting the growth of household consumption and could threaten the sustainability of recent gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. According to the National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT), remittances dropped by 32 percent (y/y), in US dollar terms during the first six months of 2015. Although the decline was less dramatic (about 18 percent) in Tajikistan somoni (TJS) terms, income losses were much larger than implied by GDP statistics. Falling remittances, limited employment creation outside the public sector, and rising prices are slowing the rate of poverty reduction. Moreover, the lack of well-targeted social programs leaves households vulnerable to economic shocks.

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