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Indonesia Economic Quarterly, July 2012 : Rising to Present and Future Challenges
英文名称:
作者:
World Bank
工作单位:
类型:
世界银行报告
关键字:
ASSET HOLDINGS BALANCE OF PAYMENT BANKING INDUSTRY BANKING SECTOR BUDGET DEFICIT CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CASH BALANCE CASH TRANSFER CENTRAL BANK COAL COMMERCIAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMPETITIVENESS CONFIDENCE OF INVESTORS CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE CPI CREDIT FACILITIES CREDIT GROWTH CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS DEBT MARKETS DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES DEVELOPMENT BANK DISBURSEMENT DIVESTMENT DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC CURRENCY DOMESTIC DEBT DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC EQUITY DOMESTIC INVESTOR DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC VOLATILITY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET EQUITY EMERGING MARKETS ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY PRICES EQUITY HOLDINGS EQUITY INDEX EQUITY MARKET EQUITY MARKET VOLATILITY EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKETS EXPORTERS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL FINANCING FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INFLOWS FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY FISCAL BURDEN FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FOOD PRICE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FOREIGN INVESTORS FOREIGN OWNERSHIP FUTURES GLOBAL BONDS GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL RISK GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BOND GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT SECURITIES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HUMAN CAPITAL INCOME INCOME TAX INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATIONS INFLATION RATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS INSURANCE CORPORATION INTEREST RATE INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTING INVESTMENT POLICY INVESTOR CONFIDENCE ISSUANCE LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LEGAL FRAMEWORK LIQUIDITY LOAN LOCAL BANKS LOCAL CURRENCY MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET DEVELOPMENTS MARKET ENVIRONMENT MARKETPLACE MATURITIES METALS MICRODATA MONETARY POLICY MORTGAGE NATURAL RESOURCES NON-PERFORMING LOANS OFFSHORE MARKETS OIL OIL PRICE OPPORTUNITY COST OUTPUT POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESPONSES PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO CAPITAL PORTFOLIO CAPITAL INFLOWS PORTFOLIO INFLOWS PRICE ADJUSTMENT PRICE EXPECTATIONS PRICE INCREASE PRICE INDICES PRICE SERIES PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PROPERTY MARKET PRUDENTIAL REGULATION RED TAPE RESERVE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS RESERVES RISK AVERSION SAFER ASSETS SAFETY NET SALES SECURITIES ISSUANCE SELLING PRICE SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SAFETY NET SOVEREIGN BOND SOVEREIGN DEBT SPREAD STOCKS SUSTAINABLE USE TAX TAX REVENUE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TERM DEPOSITS TERMS OF TRADE TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE SECTORS TRADING UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE URBANIZATION WORLD ECONOMY Report Rapport Informe
年份:
2012
发布时间:
学科分类:
出版地:
Washington,USA
总页数:
语种:
English
信息来源:
摘要:
The Indonesia economic quarterly reports on and synthesizes the past three months' key developments in Indonesia's economy. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for Indonesia's economic and social welfare. The near-term global economic outlook is fragile and emerging economies, including Indonesia, again face the risk of a potential crisis that is not of their making. The growth outlook for Indonesia's major trading partners (MTP), at 3.3 percent in 2012, remains relatively weak as increased Euro zone uncertainty adds to the ongoing drags on global growth from budget cutting and deleveraging in developed economies, and capacity constraints in some developing economies. Recent international financial market turbulence looks set to continue in the near-term and, while this baseline scenario remains the most likely outcome, capital flows to emerging economies and sentiment are likely to remain volatile. Further enhancing crisis preparedness is therefore a policy priority for economies such as Indonesia but, at the same time, it is important to push ahead with reforms and investments which can support medium-term growth in what is likely to be a weaker global economic environment. Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained a solid 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2012, down slightly from an average of 6.5 percent in 2011. Seasonally-adjusted growth overall came down off the highs of the final quarter of 2011 but consumption growth held up well. However, investment growth dipped and, reflecting the relative weakness of external demand, net exports again were a drag on growth. Inflation, although picking up somewhat, has remained relatively low and price expectations came down with the reduced likelihood of a subsidized fuel price increase in 2012, as oil prices declined. In the event of a major freezing of international financial markets which contributes to a drop in trading partner growth. In a scenario in which such a crisis was accompanied, or indeed precipitated, a severe, prolonged global downturn encompassing the major emerging economies, growth in Indonesia could drop to 3.8 percent, with the impact of the slowdown felt more sharply in domestic activity as commodity price falls reduce incomes and investment. In the event of a severe crisis, it is possible that domestic consumer and business sentiment drops sharply which, combined with any potential stresses in the financial sector, could result in further downside to the growth scenarios.

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